SAN FRANCISCO, CA -- At 5thQuarterSports, we care about two things: forcing each other into lightning bets during games, and deep statistical analysis of NFL play-by-play data. Today, we’ve decided to combine the two because I’m sick of losing a pile of dollar bets 4/7 days a week. We’ve broken down what it means to choke and which team chokes the most. So sit back, relax, and crack one of those fancy new alcohol free Budweisers.
As a side note, in my last stats breakdown the 5thQ team sat me down and ripped me a new one. Apparently, I was a bit of a condescending, salty asshole. Apparently, I insult the reader’s by assuming they don’t read graphs often. Apparently, reiterating that I know nothing about football whilst writing a deep dive on football analysis is “not on-brand.” However, I care not and refuse to change my ways. They can’t block me from writing, I know the passwords to the site and they’re too lazy to change them. The password also isn’t ‘hunter2’ but I cannot prove that.
Anyways, onto the breakdowns. We’re going to approach this quandary with a narrow scope and see just how bad things can get. We’re specifically going to look at how a team can royally fuck up on a 4th down and turn the ball over. I can hear the comments now:
“What if they’re not passed the 50-yard line?”
And other heinous questions. I. Don’t. Care.
4th Down Fumbles
This one should be obvious. Someone’s gloves were buttered. The other team’s defense is just better. Whatever the excuse, lets see who has the worst track record for fumbling on 4th downs:Image Source
Surprise, surprise, we see the Oakland Raiders first up on the block. Coming in close second is the Jacksonville Jaguars, and at a safe enough distance is the New York Giants. Is this why Antonio Brown got in a fist fight with Mayock? It is safe to say, yes it is.
4th Down Passing Interceptions
I like to call these ones ‘oopsie-whoopsies’ just because I am just a silly goose.Image Source
Looking at these results, they’re pretty drastically different than I would have expected. However, numbers and ball don’t lie. We’re seeing that the Rams are really unable to get the ball down field, followed closely by the Dolphins. This isn’t supernatural, it is just unfortunate.
4th Down SACK
This final stat is what I think is the most depressing of them all. The KEY player cannot be protected in crunch time. In a time of distress and DIRE need. The penultimate choke. Here is who is most likely for SACKs.Image Source
Yes, the Panthers come in first in this dreadful category. However, I need you to look closely. Really close, towards those teams who do not get many 4th down sacks. Here, we see the Rams once again, at a 2.3% chance. Is this because teams are not scared of them actually completing a pass, and choking with a fumble? Hard to say. But the answer is yes.
For Whomst The Choke Tolls
All of these teams choke in their own special way. Thankfully, no one team dominates the choke scale. This highlights that all teams have their strengths, and have their weaknesses. However, maybe not. I’m sad to say, the St. Louis Rams have ACTUALLY TAKEN THE TITLE AS THE TEAM WITH THE MOST CHOKE. Not only do they appear in 4th place in the fumbles on 4th Downs, 4th place in the passing Interceptions on 4th Downs, and 2nd place in the SACKS category, they also appear AGAIN, as the LA Rams in 1st for passing interceptions. As if LA needed more things to be depressed about. How...how unfortunate. Thank you for coming to my TEDx.